Barron’s best dividend funds

Some highlights from Barron’s:

When it comes to picking stocks, quality trumps timing, says Clare Hart, the lead manager of JPMorgan Equity Income (OIEIX).

“With a quality company, a lot of times people will say, ‘That’s interesting, but I don’t know what the catalyst is — how are you going to make money on the stock?’ ” notes Hart. Her perspective: Just invest. With quality companies, it’s worth the wait for the earnings to come. And based on her fund’s performance, Hart seems to know what she’s talking about. Over the past three years, $2.7 billion-asset JPMorgan Equity Income has returned an annualized 15.61%. That’s tops among U.S.-registered, domestic equity-income funds, according to Lipper.

In the financial sector, Hart likes banking outfits, such as M&T Bank, (MTB), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Cullen Frost Bankers (CFR). Those institutions are rooted in the mundane business of retail- and small-business lending. But right now, their bread-and-butter businesses look good alongside those of financial companies that have their fingers in riskier areas, Hart says. “These guys are not in business lines that might disappear,” she says.

 

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Which Energy MLPs to buy now?

We’ve been big fans of MLPs for years because of two simple reasons.  They pay handsome yields that, as a group, tend to grow over time (which is crucial) and the energy market is only becoming more supply constrained (shale gas notwithstanding).  With that we point to you a great article about energy MLPs and specifically which ones are worth buying now.

From Finalternatives:

“The energy master-limited partnership universe consists of about 80 companies with collective market capitalization of $300 billion—60% of which is headquartered within 20 miles of Greg Reid’s Houston office. Reid is a managing director of Salient Partners and head of its $1 billion MLP business. Prior to joining Salient he founded and ran RDG Capital, a wealth management firm that also specialized in energy MLPs.

Reid is bullish on the companies—which are structured as limited partnerships, trade on public exchanges and earn 90% of their returns from natural resources—estimating their total annual returns in the double-digits.”

What do you look at when evaluating an MLP?

We evaluate all 80 of the energy MLPs—I say energy because there are some that are not energy; StoneMor is a cemetery MLP. We don’t look at the maybe 20 or so MLPs that don’t fit the energy infrastructure. But of the 80 that qualify, we’re looking for a long-term, sustainable business plan that generates attractive current income, meaning yields of 5% to 8% a year and a long-term growth rate. MLPs are really driven by a total-return formula that is essentially yield plus growth, and today current yields in the index are around 6.2% and growth is around 6.5% or so, even 7%, on a market-cap-weighted basis. That leads us to expected returns of around 12% to 13% a year.

And what are some of your best ideas?

One of our favorite companies is Plains All American Pipeline. It yields about 5% today and we expect growth to be in the 5% to 8% a year range. They’re involved in the crude oil transportation, storage and logistics business, which is a high-growth, very profitable part of the MLP industry right now. They also just announced a two-for-one stock split and that’s a good sign that they expect future growth in their cash-flow. And they’re, of course, outperforming this year and have been for a number of years. So that’s one of our top holdings. It’s based here in Houston; it would be a core position and all of our funds would own Plains.

Another large-cap name—these are both pretty recognizable names—Enterprise Products, which is another large Houston company, is the largest company in the industry. It’s a similar story as Plains: A diversified business, it’s really the industry leader and has a yield of approximately 5% and we’re expecting at least 6% annual growth.  Enterprise is primarily involved in the natural gas liquid fractionation business, with a number of fractionation facilities here in the Houston area, but they have also other business units that they’re involved with.

In the small- to mid-cap area, one of our favorite ideas is midstream natural gas company Targa. It’s also a Houston company and they actually have two share classes, the limited partnership yields about 6.4% today and trades for about $40 a share, and we’re expecting to see distribution growth of 10% to 15% this year and probably again next year.

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European Dividend Payers

From MarketWatch

Health-care stocks appeal to Andrea Williams, who manages the Royal London European Income Fund. Among her favorites: Roche Holding AG (SWL:CH:ROG) (OTN:RHHBY) and Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) (SWL:CH:NOVN) . Those companies have dividend yields of around 4% to 4.5%, she said. Sanofi SA (NYSE:SNY) (EPA:FR:SAN) and Novo Nordisk are also stocks she holds.

Media is another sector that is offering up decent dividends, the London-based manager said. Examples include Reed Elsevier PLC (LSS:UK:REL) (EAM:NL:REN) (NYSE:RUK) and Wolters Kluwer NV (EAM:NL:WKL) (OTN:WTKWY) .

Industrial companies with a global reach are also on the radar. “We’re concerned about Europe, but not that overly concerned about the rest of the world,” Williams said. Siemens SA (NYSE:SI) (FRA:DE:SIE) and Schneider Electric SA (EPA:FR:SU) are examples.

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Why Dividends are Important

From an excellent research piece by Tweedy Brown:


• Over the long term, the return from dividends has been a significant contributor to the
total returns produced by equity securities.
• There is an abundance of empirical evidence which suggests that portfolios consisting of
higher dividend yielding securities produce returns that are attractive relative to loweryielding portfolios and to overall stock market returns over long measurement periods.
• Stocks with high and apparent sustainable dividend yields that are competitive with high
quality bond yields may be more resistant to a decline in price than lower-yielding
securities because the stock is in effect “yield supported”. The reinvestment of dividends
during stock market declines has also been shown to lessen the time necessary to recoup
portfolio losses.
• The ability to pay cash dividends is a positive factor in assessing the underlying health of a
company and the quality of its earnings. This is particularly pertinent in light of the
complexity of corporate accounting and numerous recent examples of “earnings
management”, including occasionally fraudulent earnings manipulation.
• For years and years, U.S. tax policy disadvantaged dividends, applying high ordinary
income tax rates to the dividends paid to investors. This changed with the enactment of
the 2003 Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act. For individuals, qualified
dividends are now taxed at the same favorable rates as long-term capital gains (15%).

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Why you should buy Kinder Morgan now…

We’ve been a fan of MLP’s for years.  Barron’s recently had an article emphasizing the MLP that was also mentioned as a favorite during their roundtable discussion this year.  Here’s an excerpt:

Errico: A business in the midstream is a toll collector that takes products from point Point A to Point B. They have monopolistic characteristics. Planes wouldn’t fly, homes wouldn’t be heated, and businesses couldn’t run without these entities. Our biggest position, the one I’ve got the most confidence in right now, is Kinder Morgan [KMI]. It’s the general partnership that owns Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [KMP], one of the largest U.S oil and gas pipeline companies. About 95% of its revenues are fee-based. What distinguishes KMI, and any MLP general partner, is that it gets a higher percentage of income when KMP raises its distribution, much like a general partner in a hedge fund or a real-estate partnership.

People call CEO Richard Kinder an MLP pioneer.

Errico: Rich Kinder left Enron in 1996 and purchased Enron’s pipelines. I’ve owned KMP since 1997. After 15 years of listening to him on conference calls, I can say he under-promises and over-delivers. He pays himself $1 a year.

And the shares?

Errico: KMP has had a 25% annual return since 1996. Kinder just did a legendary, transformational merger, buying the general partnership of El Paso [EP]. Kinder Morgan now owns two pipelines and two general partnerships. KMI could double its distribution in the next five years. Today, you get $1.40 in distributions, or 4%, and it is a $35 stock. If you get $2.50 in distributions, that’s a $62 stock. KMI, the general partnership, is where Rich Kinder has all his money. He made my career in the 1990s. I’m not worried about whether he is going to cover the distribution.

image

Gary Spector for Barron’sGary Ran prefers to invest in MLPs through closed-end and other types of funds.

Bollinger: We initiated a position in KMI after the El Paso announcement in October.

KMI is currently yielding 4% and is off its 52 week highs:

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Why Dividends matter

From WSJ:

“We are near another all time high for total return, even as stocks remain 10.2% off their all time high. We need a 0.14% total return to set a new record, which includes today’s dividends adding .02%. Dividend stocks are still hot, but investors should be looking long-term, not for the moment. Indicated dividend rate up 13.0% from 12/30/2011, 2012 payment estimated to be an all time high. Given the timing of the increases, unless issues decrease their dividends (in which case don’t worry about dividends -> means everything is going down) 2013 already has a +3% payment increase built in.”

…this is a good point but it underscores the importance of not just seeking out good dividend-paying stocks…but good dividend growing stocks. THAT is where the real money is made over time.

For now, I’m a firm believer of investing full-bore into mREITs which amounts to basically nothing more than a carry trade…which I can stomach because “helicopter Ben” is determined to keep short rates low “until 2014″ (which means cheap money for these guys to buy mortgages).  The second that gig is up, however, and it’s straight into long-term, dividend growing blue chips (think PG, JNJ, etc) and MLPs.

Until then…happy investing.

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How to update your mREIT portfolio

A good article from MarketWatch:

“Mortgage REITs operate in much the same manner as leveraged bond funds, borrowing at lower short-term rates to invest in higher-yielding, longer-term securities. The product of this arbitrage constitutes most of the total return to investors, especially when the yield curve is steep.”

..which is why we like them so much right now…”Helicopter Ben” is guaranteeing short-term rates stay low through 2014 (i.e. cheap borrowing for mREITs).

“But we’ve seen the yield curve grow flatter over the past year, beginning with the Fed’s Operation Twist initiative, commenced in September 2011.

Thus has the particular art endemic to arbitrage been especially apparent, as some mREIT managements have more deftly navigated the flattening curve than others. And that disparate performance can certainly be seen in the underlying metrics.”

…the author goes on to say that he is long AGNC, CYS and NLY.

We are long AGNC, NLY and TWO.

 

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Don’t buy this Dividend stock

From Barron’s:

Spectrum Brands Sets $1 Special Dividend

Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPBsaid it’s initiating a $0.25 per share quarterly common stock dividend starting in fiscal 2013 – expected to be paid in March, June, September and December each year – and declared a one-time special dividend of $1.00 per share to be paid on Sept. 18 to shareholders as of Aug. 27.

For those of you who aren’t aware…SPB is under the control of hedge fund honcho Phil Falcone via his fund Harbinger Partners:

Despite getting in on the subprime trade early (like John Paulson, Michael Burry and some others) and earning investors multiples on their cash in ’07…Phil Falcone has NOT done right by investors since then.  Harbinger’s returns have languished since then, the fund has gated (prevented investors from getting their money back), Phil borrowed over $100M from the fund to pay his personal taxes (for which he’s now being investigated & sued) and he went on to make a HUGE bet on Light Squared (a spectrum play) that has killed him this year.  He’s already stuck investors who want to get out of his fund into shares of HRG (of which Harbinger owns over 80% of the stock) and he’s out to try and IPO another “blank check” vehicle .

We won’t beat a dead horse here but suffice it to say…there are much better dividend stocks to be had elsewhere…

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How you can get rich off dividends…

The DividendGrowthInvestor.com has an excellent post about the power of compounding dividends:

“Anne Scheiber, who turned a $5,000 investment in 1944 into $22 million by the time of her death at the age of 101 in 1995. Anne Scheiber worked as an IRS auditor for 23 years, never earning more than $3150/year. The one important lesson she learned auditing tax returns was that the surest way to become rich in America is by accumulating stocks. She accumulated stocks in brand name companies she understood and then reinvested dividends for decades. She never sold, in order to avoid paying taxes and commissions. She also never sold even during the 1972-1974 bear market as well as the 1987 market crash because she had high conviction in her stocks picks. She also held a diversified portfolio of almost 100 individual securities in brand names such as Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Schering Plough (acquired by Pfizer in 2009). She read annual reports with the same inquisitive mind she audited tax returns during her tenure at the IRS and also attended annual shareholders meetings. Anne Scheiber did her own research on stocks, and was focusing her attention on strong franchises which have the opportunity to increase earnings and pay higher dividends over time.”

…another example is:

“Grace Groner, who turned a small $180 investment in 1935 into $7 million by the time of her death in 2010. Ms Groner, who worked as a secretary at Abbott Laboratories for 43 years invested $180 in 3 shares of Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in 1935. She then simply reinvested the dividends for the next 75 years. She never sold, but just held on to her shares.

She was frugal, having grown up in the depression era, and was the classical millionaire next door type of person who was not interested in keeping up with the Joneses. Grace Groner left her entire fortune to her Alma Mater. Her $7 million donation is generating approximately $250,000 in annual dividend income.”

Start now folks!

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A note to dividend investors: Don’t reach for yield…

For a few years now, “dividend investing” has become part of everyone’s investing lexicon.  The zero interest rate environment created by the Fed coupled with the “new normal” of slow growth, high unemployment and lower expected real return on assets has virtually forced every Baby-boomer in America to start buying anything that would pay a yield greater than 0.1%.  As a result, most dividend stocks have been bid up to unreasonable levels.  As the chart below (from Mike Goldstein at Empirical Research) shows, the average P/E ratio of dividend paying stocks is now the highest it’s been for several decades:

As we’ve pointed out previously…dividend investors need to tread carefully in this environment…unlike the “good ‘ol days” of 2008 when dividend stocks were out of favor because people were still enamoured with the go-go growth plays (like the ’90′s)…the world has changed and the good old dividend stalwarts of yesterday that have (and will) continue to raise their dividend for decades to come are now the hottest talk of the cocktail parties.

So where can you still find a fantastic yield in a sector that hasn’t been bid up by the masses?  One of my favorites are mortgage REITs.  Real estate still scares alot of people and the wounds are fresh…as a result, most of these names (including my favorite dividend stock) are yielding 14% currently and will continue to do so as long as the Fed keeps interest rates this low (which they’ve indicated will now last “through 2014″).

Other than that, look to energy for safe, sustainable yields.

Happy investing!

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